Raw Material Support and Cooling Demand: Prices May Show a Slight Downward Trend in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

SMM, December 27:

This week, the aluminum fluoride market maintained a stable pace, with enterprises focusing on order fulfillment. In terms of prices, aluminum fluoride prices remained steady, showing stable performance. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 12,500-13,500 yuan/mt, while SMM cryolite prices fluctuated within the range of 6,500-7,200 yuan/mt.

From the raw material side, as a key raw material for aluminum fluoride, fluorite prices remained stable this week. According to detailed survey data from SMM, the current procurement price of fluorite for aluminum fluoride enterprises is approximately 3,450-3,800 yuan/mt. On the supply side, the government’s stringent inspections and rectifications of mines have kept mine operating rates at low levels. Meanwhile, as temperatures in north China gradually drop, adverse weather conditions have posed significant challenges to fluorite production and transportation, leading to a notable increase in production costs and a continued tightening of fluorite supply. As of this Friday, the average fluorite price recorded by SMM was 3,608 yuan/mt, unchanged from last Friday, maintaining a relatively stable trend.

As for another raw material, aluminum hydroxide, its prices showed a stable yet slightly weakening trend this week. The average price of aluminum hydroxide, as calculated by SMM, was 3,602 yuan/mt, down by 0.13% compared to last Friday. Although the raw material market as a whole showed slight signs of loosening, it still provided support for aluminum fluoride prices.

On the supply side, with some loosening in the raw material market, the production environment for aluminum fluoride enterprises improved, allowing production activities to proceed in an orderly manner, and inventories increased accordingly. However, the strict enforcement of environmental protection policies and regular equipment maintenance led to a decline in aluminum fluoride supply in certain regions. On the demand side, the situation was equally challenging, as domestic aluminum capacity experienced a slight decline. Particularly in Sichuan and Guangxi, enterprises implemented production cuts due to technological upgrades or pressure from losses. This change directly exerted some downward pressure on the demand for aluminum fluoride.

Brief Comment: Reviewing the current market landscape, although the overall trend in the raw material market remains relatively firm, the weak downstream demand and the strong price-cutting sentiment among downstream enterprises suggest that the aluminum fluoride market may show a stable to slightly declining trend in the short term. As month-end approaches, the market is expected to witness a new round of intense competition, with all market participants eagerly awaiting the benchmark bidding prices from leading enterprises, which will serve as a crucial guide for the price direction of the aluminum fluoride market.